Stanley rallies from 8 back to win in Phoenix
Golf Betting Lines
02/05/2012 - Scottsdale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A week ago, Kyle Stanley blew an eight- stroke lead in the final round to cost himself his first PGA Tour victory.
This week, Stanley made the big rally.
He fired a six-under 65 Sunday to come from eight shots back to win the Phoenix Open by one stroke over Ben Crane.
Stanley finished his first tour win at 15-under-par 269.
"That's golf. You need to accept the fact that there's going to be ups and downs. You just can't get too high or too low, but I'm just thankful I had so much support from so many people," Stanley said in a televised interview.
"That really helped me put [last week] behind me and move on. It's been great."
Crane, who played alongside Stanley, closed with a five-under 66 at the TPC Scottsdale to take second at minus-14.
Spencer Levin started the round with a six-stroke lead, and it was seven after the first hole. He had a solid par save on the 10th, but dropped four strokes in the next five holes to fall out of the lead.
Levin stumbled to a four-over 75 to end alone in third at 13-under-par 271.
Not only was Stanley eight clear to start the final round last week, but he was still three ahead on the 18th fairway. He then spun his third shot back into the water and that led to a closing triple-bogey. That was followed by a playoff loss to Brandt Snedeker.
Levin parred the first and was seven clear as Webb Simpson tripped to a bogey on the first to slip into a tie for second. However, Levin stumbled to bogeys on four and six as his lead dipped to three over Crane, who went four-under par in a three-hole span from the second.
Meanwhile, Stanley was quietly making a move. He poured in birdies on two and three. After four pars in a row, Stanley rolled in a birdie on the eighth.
Stanley got within three of Levin with a birdie at the par-four 11th.
Levin parred four in a row from the seventh, including a key par-saving putt from 12 feet out on No. 10. But trouble loomed for the leader.
At the par-four 11th, Levin dumped his second shot into a greenside bunker and failed to save par from there. He again found sand off the tee at the par- three 12th.
Levin blasted to 10 feet, but his par putt slid by the left edge. His lead was down to one.
Stanley, who was two groups in front of Levin, two-putted for birdie on the par-five 13th to join Levin in the lead at 14-under. Stanley came right back with a 12-foot birdie putt at 14 to grab the outright lead by himself.
Levin responded with a 14-foot birdie effort of his own on the 14th to forge a tie at minus-15, but the 15th would be Levin's undoing.
The 27-year-old Levin drove under a bush, then putted his ball back to the first cut of rough. His five-iron third shot came up well short in the water. He chipped on with his fifth, but two-putted for double-bogey to slide two back.
Stanley two-putted for par on 15, then saved par from eight feet out on 16. He hit a remarkable chip shot from under a cactus and onto the green at 17. Stanley two-putted from 22 feet.
At the 18th, Stanley hit his drive left and got a drop from the grandstands. He knocked his second to 17 feet and two-putted for a closing par.
"I had a couple of squirrelly tee shots, but my recovery shots were fantastic. I made a really good par save there on 15, 16 as well. It was nice to make that four-footer at the last," said Stanley on TV.
Crane had a chance to join Stanley at 15-under, but failed to hole his birdie chip at the last. Then, Stanley had to wait to see if Levin could catch him.
Levin missed the 16th green left and got up and down for par. After he failed to convert a 27-footer for birdie on 17, Levin needed to hole out for eagle at the last to force a playoff.
Levin's approach on 18 landed close to the hole, but rolled out to 40 feet. He two-putted for par to end alone in third and give Stanley his first tour win.
D.J. Trahan closed with a 66 to take fourth place at 12-under-par 272. Kevin Na (65), Bubba Watson (70) and Brendan Steele (64) shared fifth at minus-11.
NOTES: Stanley earned $1.098 million for the win...Levin is one of six players to have lost a final-round lead of at last six strokes...Last year's winner Mark Wilson matched Steele for the low round of the day with his 64, and that helped Wilson jump 41 spots into a share of 19th at minus-seven...D.A. Points will defend his title at the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am next week against a field that includes Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.
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Betting Football
NFL Football Betting OnlineIs there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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